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Thesis · thesis_mrj03sm0_1bmyti
XMR

XMR

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 2h ago · 2026-07-13T09:09:28Z · expires 2026-07-15

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/25
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.77%.

  • Closed -0.77% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$330.494
Entry high
$333.066
Target 1
$338.9559
Target 2
$343.354
Stop loss
$325.35
XMR · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
344.85336.64328.43320.22312.01327.237/8 11:007/9 17:007/10 23:007/12 05:007/13 11:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · none
RSI 14
52.6
Neutral
ADX 14
19.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
5.23
1.60% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 332.97
Lower 317.28
inside
SMA stack
20325.12
50324.79
200326.12
PatternsBearish Engulfing
TA Workspace · XMR
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

XMR · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $327.2300 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
15.5521 XMR
$5.16K
Leverage
0.52x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 338.9559
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 343.354
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 325.35
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open XMR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 32.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • Replay memory is thin for this asset/regime, so sizing remains conservative.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. LONG desk bias has 100 confidence. Policy confidence 31.0.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is strong enough to let the desk lean in a little faster when live structure agrees.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 20.2, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $325.3500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command coverage is still thin.

Final thesis
XMR Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command coverage is still thin. XMR cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
XMR
Price331.78
Timestamp1783933741287
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 59.15,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 1.98,
    "signal": 1.28,
    "histogram": 0.7
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 333.68,
    "middle": 325.35,
    "lower": 317.03,
    "width": 5.12
  },
  "sma20": 325.35,
  "sma50": 324.88,
  "sma200": 326.15,
  "ema12": 327.84,
  "ema26": 325.86,
  "atr14": 5.11,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 88.14,
    "d": 77.19
  },
  "adx14": 20.16,
  "obv": -67117.88600000003
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "XMR",
    "timestamp": 1783933741284,
    "price": 331.78,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.73,
        "signal": 0.73,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 332.11,
        "middle": 330.51,
        "lower": 328.9,
        "width": 0.97
      },
      "sma20": 330.51,
      "sma50": 328.3,
      "sma200": 326.21,
      "ema12": 330.51,
      "ema26": 329.78,
      "atr14": 1.42,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 93.51,
        "d": 68.7
      },
      "adx14": 20.63,
      "obv": 5068.564000000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "XMR",
    "timestamp": 1783933741285,
    "price": 331.69622619,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.85,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.29,
        "signal": -1.12,
        "histogram": 0.83
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 331.88,
        "middle": 316.31,
        "lower": 300.75,
        "width": 9.84
      },
      "sma20": 316.31,
      "sma50": 314.94,
      "sma200": 326.05,
      "ema12": 314.76,
      "ema26": 315.05,
      "atr14": 13.7,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 24.66,
        "d": 32.97
      },
      "adx14": 20.78,
      "obv": -53891.59899999998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "XMR",
    "timestamp": 1783933741286,
    "price": 331.78,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.15,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.98,
        "signal": 1.28,
        "histogram": 0.7
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 333.68,
        "middle": 325.35,
        "lower": 317.03,
        "width": 5.12
      },
      "sma20": 325.35,
      "sma50": 324.88,
      "sma200": 326.15,
      "ema12": 327.84,
      "ema26": 325.86,
      "atr14": 5.11,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 88.14,
        "d": 77.19
      },
      "adx14": 20.16,
      "obv": -67117.88600000003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "XMR",
    "timestamp": 1783933741287,
    "price": 331.78,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.93,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -1.8,
        "signal": -4.06,
        "histogram": 2.26
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 335.99,
        "middle": 319.69,
        "lower": 303.4,
        "width": 10.2
      },
      "sma20": 319.69,
      "sma50": 333.93,
      "sma200": 377.95,
      "ema12": 323.81,
      "ema26": 325.61,
      "atr14": 16.34,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.97,
        "d": 69.79
      },
      "adx14": 17.94,
      "obv": -451306.0469999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 0.9,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": 0.1,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.1
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest51458591.20
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1593.1,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 331.64892857
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 387.44347619
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 331.645
    }
  ]
}
Price331.78
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss325.35
Take profit343.35
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.94
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for XMR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is thin, so AI should not command aggressively yet.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • Strategy commander evidence is still thin
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • strategy lab is fragile, so FredAI is staying cautious
  • strategy commander context is thin
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score31
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence20.20
Reasons
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • strategy lab is fragile, so FredAI is staying cautious
  • strategy commander context is thin
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. LONG desk bias has 100 confidence. Policy confidence 31.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
offline
Score4
Note
Strategy lab is thin, so AI should not command aggressively yet.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$331.78
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$51.5M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
offline
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See XMR chart with overlay More thesesAll XMR theses