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Thesis · thesis_mrngus6c_cpvivs
PYTH

PYTH

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 1h ago · 2026-07-16T12:09:25Z · expires 2026-07-18

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/25
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.01% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.28%.

  • Max adverse excursion hit -3.45% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0505
Entry high
$0.0508
Target 1
$0.0515
Target 2
$0.0520
Stop loss
$0.0500
PYTH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.05230.05050.04880.0470.04520.05097/11 11:007/12 17:007/13 23:007/15 05:007/16 11:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
66.4
Bullish
ADX 14
32.6
Trending
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0500
Lower 0.0500
above upper
SMA stack
200.0500
500.0500
2000.0400
TA Workspace · PYTH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PYTH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.050862 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
153,846.1538 PYTH
$7.79K
Leverage
0.78x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.08
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0515
+1.31R$130.77(+1.31%)
T2 hit @ 0.052
+2.08R$207.69(+2.08%)
Stop hit @ 0.05
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PYTH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 77.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 18.2, returned 12.24%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME TREND is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 91.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 34.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
PYTH Long: selective command with guarded risk

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. PYTH cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PYTH
Price0.05
Timestamp1784203742631
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 64.24,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.05,
    "middle": 0.05,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 12.69
  },
  "sma20": 0.05,
  "sma50": 0.05,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.05,
  "ema26": 0.05,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 85.34,
    "d": 88.25
  },
  "adx14": 34.11,
  "obv": 216636976
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Harami",
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1784203742582,
    "price": 0.050662,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 2.96
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 51.95,
        "d": 59.91
      },
      "adx14": 25.63,
      "obv": 6233757
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1784203742628,
    "price": 0.05078031,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 93.99,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.02,
        "width": 53.81
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 96.55,
        "d": 81.62
      },
      "adx14": 23.75,
      "obv": -1839981
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1784203742630,
    "price": 0.050662,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.24,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 12.69
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 85.34,
        "d": 88.25
      },
      "adx14": 34.11,
      "obv": 216636976
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1784203742631,
    "price": 0.050662,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.45,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 48.4
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 93.9,
        "d": 82.51
      },
      "adx14": 37.74,
      "obv": 329720892
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1.6,
  "maxBps": 0.5,
  "minBps": -1.1,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": -1.1
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.5
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest2133635.94
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 393.8,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.05078253
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.050877
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.04890061
    }
  ]
}
Price0.05
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.05
Take profit0.05
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.31
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PYTH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked PYTH mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Latest-asset replay supports the direction
  • FredAI memory supports a controlled probe
  • VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.2
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score91
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence81.50
Reasons
  • VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.2
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 91.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0.30
Note
Desk recently blocked PYTH mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score41
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0507
Funding rate
-0.0013%
Open interest
$2.1M
Macro regime
balanced_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
balanced_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See PYTH chart with overlay More thesesAll PYTH theses