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Thesis · thesis_mrrp154r_78t67p
SOL

SOL

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 12h ago · 2026-07-19T11:09:23Z · expires 2026-07-21

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
72/29
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.40%.

  • Max adverse excursion hit -0.59% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$76.2786
Entry high
$76.4314
Target 1
$76.6958
Target 2
$76.9048
Stop loss
$76.0496
SOL · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
79.2877.7276.1674.673.0576.387/14 23:007/16 05:007/17 11:007/18 17:007/19 23:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · lowSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
56.1
Bullish
ADX 14
14.5
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.8500
1.11% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 76.46
Lower 74.35
inside
SMA stack
2075.41
5076.18
20075.20
TA Workspace · SOL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $76.3690 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
327.4394 SOL
$25.00K
Leverage
2.50x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$61.0850
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 76.6958
+1.12R$111.59(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 76.9048
+1.80R$180.03(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 76.0496
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d structure leans heavy.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 36.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI TREND REENTRY replay (latest asset) scored 13.5, returned 3.64%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI TREND REENTRY is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 42.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 15.4, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $76.0496, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
SOL Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command is defensive. SOL cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SOL
Price76.36
Timestamp1784459318739
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.18,
    "signal": -0.37,
    "histogram": 0.19
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 76.67,
    "middle": 75.46,
    "lower": 74.25,
    "width": 3.2
  },
  "sma20": 75.46,
  "sma50": 76.3,
  "sma200": 75.17,
  "ema12": 75.64,
  "ema26": 75.82,
  "atr14": 0.84,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 94.15,
    "d": 87.26
  },
  "adx14": 15.39,
  "obv": -3225764.140000004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1784459318734,
    "price": 76.355000003241,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.07,
        "signal": 0.07,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 76.35,
        "middle": 76.12,
        "lower": 75.9,
        "width": 0.59
      },
      "sma20": 76.12,
      "sma50": 75.92,
      "sma200": 75.19,
      "ema12": 76.14,
      "ema26": 76.07,
      "atr14": 0.16,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 79.07,
        "d": 67.03
      },
      "adx14": 25.52,
      "obv": 256007.18999999994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1784459318734,
    "price": 76.355000003241,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 84.39,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.56,
        "signal": -0.14,
        "histogram": 0.71
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 71.06,
        "middle": 66.09,
        "lower": 61.11,
        "width": 15.05
      },
      "sma20": 66.09,
      "sma50": 66.36,
      "sma200": 68.69,
      "ema12": 66.94,
      "ema26": 66.38,
      "atr14": 2.25,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64.77,
        "d": 56
      },
      "adx14": 25.29,
      "obv": -4838158.700000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1784459318737,
    "price": 76.355000003241,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.18,
        "signal": -0.37,
        "histogram": 0.19
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 76.67,
        "middle": 75.46,
        "lower": 74.25,
        "width": 3.2
      },
      "sma20": 75.46,
      "sma50": 76.3,
      "sma200": 75.17,
      "ema12": 75.64,
      "ema26": 75.82,
      "atr14": 0.84,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 94.15,
        "d": 87.26
      },
      "adx14": 15.39,
      "obv": -3225764.140000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1784459318739,
    "price": 76.355000003241,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.42,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.29,
        "signal": 0.73,
        "histogram": -0.45
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 83.15,
        "middle": 77.99,
        "lower": 72.83,
        "width": 13.23
      },
      "sma20": 77.99,
      "sma50": 73.39,
      "sma200": 90.09,
      "ema12": 76.51,
      "ema26": 76.23,
      "atr14": 3.09,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 29.02,
        "d": 21.78
      },
      "adx14": 14.59,
      "obv": -59059533.49000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 7,
  "spreadBps": 2.3,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": -1.3,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "okx",
      "bps": 0.1
    },
    {
      "venue": "bybit",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "edgex",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.6
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": -1.3
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest658384012.13
Cross Venue O I
{
  "venues": 2,
  "totalUsd": 1011739155,
  "topVenue": "bybit",
  "topVenueSharePct": 65.1,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "bybit",
      "oiUsd": 658384012
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "oiUsd": 353355143
    }
  ]
}
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 6,
  "spreadBps": 12856.9,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "okx",
      "px": 86.83
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 76.3325
    },
    {
      "venue": "edgex",
      "px": 76.355000003241
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 85.22
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.7327
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 76.32459926
    }
  ]
}
Price76.36
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss76.05
Take profit76.90
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread20.50
Dominant Conviction71.50
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction71.50
Bear Conviction28.50
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis outcome is being monitored.
  • Admin test publish path
  • Latest-asset replay supports the direction
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 13.5
  • LONG desk bias has 82 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score42.90
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence44.40
Reasons
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 13.5
  • LONG desk bias has 82 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 42.9.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1.40
Note
Recent thesis outcome is being monitored.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score15.10
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$76.355
Funding rate
0.0049%
Open interest
$658.4M
Macro regime
balanced_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
balanced_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_TREND_REENTRY · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See SOL chart with overlay More thesesAll SOL theses