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Thesis · thesis_mrstr68i_whdko6
VIRTUAL

VIRTUAL

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 17h ago · 2026-07-20T06:09:23Z · expires 2026-07-23

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
77/25
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.09%
peak +0.09% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +8.52%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +8.52% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.5956
Entry high
$0.6028
Target 1
$0.6327
Target 2
$0.6532
Stop loss
$0.5692
VIRTUAL · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.66870.64270.61660.59050.56450.64017/15 23:007/17 05:007/18 11:007/19 17:007/20 23:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
59.7
Bullish
ADX 14
21.4
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0200
3.12% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.6500
Lower 0.5900
inside
SMA stack
200.6200
500.6100
2000.5700
TA Workspace · VIRTUAL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

VIRTUAL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.640410 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,333.3333 VIRTUAL
$2.00K
Leverage
0.20x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.6327
+1.12R$111.67(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.6532
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.5692
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open VIRTUAL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 100.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • DONCHIAN BREAKOUT replay (latest asset) scored 35.7, returned 28.95%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
  • Historical lane Swing Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is constructive, so the desk can be a little less conservative when the setup is aligned.
  • Risk controls cleared medium risk with a projected 1.8:1 reward-to-risk profile.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 20.6, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.5692, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
VIRTUAL Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. VIRTUAL cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
VIRTUAL
Price0.60
Timestamp1784527736293
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 44.03,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.64,
    "middle": 0.62,
    "lower": 0.6,
    "width": 6.8
  },
  "sma20": 0.62,
  "sma50": 0.6,
  "sma200": 0.57,
  "ema12": 0.61,
  "ema26": 0.61,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 2.47,
    "d": 23.68
  },
  "adx14": 20.63,
  "obv": 8331995.899999996
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1784527736291,
    "price": 0.5991974,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 30.43,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.62,
        "middle": 0.61,
        "lower": 0.6,
        "width": 2.95
      },
      "sma20": 0.61,
      "sma50": 0.61,
      "sma200": 0.61,
      "ema12": 0.61,
      "ema26": 0.61,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 5.94,
        "d": 10.24
      },
      "adx14": 16.5,
      "obv": -86523.69999999984
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1784527736292,
    "price": 0.5991974,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.23,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.59,
        "middle": 0.58,
        "lower": 0.56,
        "width": 5.55
      },
      "sma20": 0.58,
      "sma50": 0.58,
      "sma200": 0.63,
      "ema12": 0.58,
      "ema26": 0.58,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.15,
        "d": 54.36
      },
      "adx14": 15.66,
      "obv": -3522717.8999999994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1784527736292,
    "price": 0.5991974,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.64,
        "middle": 0.62,
        "lower": 0.6,
        "width": 6.8
      },
      "sma20": 0.62,
      "sma50": 0.6,
      "sma200": 0.57,
      "ema12": 0.61,
      "ema26": 0.61,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.47,
        "d": 23.68
      },
      "adx14": 20.63,
      "obv": 8331995.899999996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1784527736293,
    "price": 0.5991974,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.28,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.64,
        "middle": 0.58,
        "lower": 0.51,
        "width": 22.57
      },
      "sma20": 0.58,
      "sma50": 0.59,
      "sma200": 0.7,
      "ema12": 0.6,
      "ema26": 0.59,
      "atr14": 0.04,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 56.18,
        "d": 63.79
      },
      "adx14": 19.32,
      "obv": 62135524.30000005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1.2,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": -0.2,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": -0.2
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest6451115.57
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1591.4,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.6996
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.59893
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.5991974
    }
  ]
}
Price0.60
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.50
Leverage2
Stop loss0.57
Take profit0.65
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %5.01
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for VIRTUAL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread16
Dominant Conviction77
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction77
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_promote at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 35.7
  • LONG desk bias has 64 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence96.50
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 35.7
  • LONG desk bias has 64 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.80
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score56.70
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.5992
Funding rate
-0.0023%
Open interest
$6.5M
Macro regime
balanced_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See VIRTUAL chart with overlay More thesesAll VIRTUAL theses