EGOLDSEGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mru4wnmp_okfz5k
FARTCOIN

FARTCOIN

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 7h ago · 2026-07-21T04:09:20Z · expires 2026-07-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/25
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.96%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -2.10% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1422
Entry high
$0.1434
Target 1
$0.1459
Target 2
$0.1479
Stop loss
$0.1400
FARTCOIN · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.14890.14320.13750.13180.12610.13927/16 12:007/17 18:007/19 00:007/20 06:007/21 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · none
RSI 14
55.7
Bullish
ADX 14
18.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1400
Lower 0.1300
inside
SMA stack
200.1300
500.1400
2000.1400
TA Workspace · FARTCOIN
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

FARTCOIN · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.139120 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
35,714.2857 FARTCOIN
$5.10K
Leverage
0.51x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.82
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1459
+1.11R$110.71(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.1479
+1.82R$182.14(+1.82%)
Stop hit @ 0.14
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open FARTCOIN on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1d structure leans heavy.
  • Candidate quality is 63.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (latest asset) scored 18.8, returned 23.36%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. MACD MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 55.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 18.2, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
FARTCOIN Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. FARTCOIN cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
FARTCOIN
Price0.14
Timestamp1784606940423
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 65.61,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.14,
    "middle": 0.13,
    "lower": 0.13,
    "width": 10.93
  },
  "sma20": 0.13,
  "sma50": 0.14,
  "sma200": 0.14,
  "ema12": 0.14,
  "ema26": 0.14,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 92.93,
    "d": 89.27
  },
  "adx14": 18.2,
  "obv": -20613997.69999997
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1784606940419,
    "price": 0.14281,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 74.01,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.14,
        "middle": 0.14,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 3.66
      },
      "sma20": 0.14,
      "sma50": 0.14,
      "sma200": 0.13,
      "ema12": 0.14,
      "ema26": 0.14,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 83.25,
        "d": 90.64
      },
      "adx14": 34.26,
      "obv": 31594247.799999993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1784606940420,
    "price": 0.14277772,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 82.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.13,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 17.73
      },
      "sma20": 0.12,
      "sma50": 0.12,
      "sma200": 0.12,
      "ema12": 0.12,
      "ema26": 0.12,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 49.46,
        "d": 47.1
      },
      "adx14": 20.11,
      "obv": -96100102.3
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1784606940422,
    "price": 0.14281,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.61,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.14,
        "middle": 0.13,
        "lower": 0.13,
        "width": 10.93
      },
      "sma20": 0.13,
      "sma50": 0.14,
      "sma200": 0.14,
      "ema12": 0.14,
      "ema26": 0.14,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 92.93,
        "d": 89.27
      },
      "adx14": 18.2,
      "obv": -20613997.69999997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1784606940423,
    "price": 0.14281,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.17,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.13,
        "width": 28.88
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.13,
      "sma200": 0.2,
      "ema12": 0.14,
      "ema26": 0.14,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 51.42,
        "d": 30.97
      },
      "adx14": 17.37,
      "obv": -649639410.2999996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 0.5,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": 0.5,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest22725729.13
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 3693.5,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.20292024
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.14278625
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.14278
    }
  ]
}
Price0.14
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.14
Take profit0.15
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.97
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for FARTCOIN; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_watch_directional at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked FARTCOIN mostly because: FredAI memory grade C is still warming (MACD_MOMENTUM, confidence 47.3).
  • Admin test publish path
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.8
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score55.30
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence52.50
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.8
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 55.3.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked FARTCOIN mostly because: FredAI memory grade C is still warming (MACD_MOMENTUM, confidence 47.3).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score18.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1428
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$22.7M
Macro regime
balanced_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
balanced_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See FARTCOIN chart with overlay More thesesAll FARTCOIN theses