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Thesis · thesis_mruo736b_fwrbe6
SOL

SOL

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 3h ago · 2026-07-21T13:09:20Z · expires 2026-07-23

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/25
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.88%.

  • Closed -0.88% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$78.339
Entry high
$78.891
Target 1
$80.1551
Target 2
$81.099
Stop loss
$77.235
SOL · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
81.4979.3577.2175.0872.9478.057/16 16:007/17 22:007/19 04:007/20 10:007/21 16:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
63.1
Bullish
ADX 14
24.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.9100
1.17% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 79.03
Lower 74.64
inside
SMA stack
2076.83
5076.35
20075.48
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · SOL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $78.0280 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
72.4638 SOL
$5.70K
Leverage
0.57x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 80.1551
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 81.099
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 77.235
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 125.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI TREND REENTRY replay (latest asset) scored 13.5, returned 3.64%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI TREND REENTRY is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 52.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 24.3, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $77.2350, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
SOL Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming. SOL cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SOL
Price78.62
Timestamp1784639326537
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 68.84,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.66,
    "signal": 0.4,
    "histogram": 0.27
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 79.04,
    "middle": 76.7,
    "lower": 74.36,
    "width": 6.1
  },
  "sma20": 76.7,
  "sma50": 76.32,
  "sma200": 75.45,
  "ema12": 77.58,
  "ema26": 76.92,
  "atr14": 0.92,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 93.05,
    "d": 89.71
  },
  "adx14": 24.34,
  "obv": -466713.21000000375
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1784639326535,
    "price": 78.61500000581145,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.78,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.04,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 78.55,
        "middle": 78.33,
        "lower": 78.11,
        "width": 0.57
      },
      "sma20": 78.33,
      "sma50": 78.27,
      "sma200": 77.03,
      "ema12": 78.38,
      "ema26": 78.34,
      "atr14": 0.18,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 90.38
      },
      "adx14": 23.57,
      "obv": 316343.0999999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1784639326536,
    "price": 78.61500000581145,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 86.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.74,
        "signal": -0.11,
        "histogram": 0.85
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 72.12,
        "middle": 66.2,
        "lower": 60.28,
        "width": 17.87
      },
      "sma20": 66.2,
      "sma50": 66.4,
      "sma200": 68.71,
      "ema12": 67.28,
      "ema26": 66.54,
      "atr14": 2.25,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 75.2,
        "d": 59.48
      },
      "adx14": 25.29,
      "obv": -4838158.700000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1784639326537,
    "price": 78.61500000581145,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 68.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.66,
        "signal": 0.4,
        "histogram": 0.27
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 79.04,
        "middle": 76.7,
        "lower": 74.36,
        "width": 6.1
      },
      "sma20": 76.7,
      "sma50": 76.32,
      "sma200": 75.45,
      "ema12": 77.58,
      "ema26": 76.92,
      "atr14": 0.92,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 93.05,
        "d": 89.71
      },
      "adx14": 24.34,
      "obv": -466713.21000000375
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1784639326537,
    "price": 78.61500000581145,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.22,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.49,
        "signal": 0.63,
        "histogram": -0.13
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 83.01,
        "middle": 78.26,
        "lower": 73.51,
        "width": 12.14
      },
      "sma20": 78.26,
      "sma50": 73.25,
      "sma200": 89.57,
      "ema12": 77.01,
      "ema26": 76.51,
      "atr14": 2.95,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 71.43,
        "d": 49.28
      },
      "adx14": 12.86,
      "obv": -59888031.89000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 7,
  "spreadBps": 2.2,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": -1.3,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "okx",
      "bps": 0.1
    },
    {
      "venue": "bybit",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "edgex",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.3
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": -1.3
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest658384012.13
Cross Venue O I
{
  "venues": 2,
  "totalUsd": 1017907612,
  "topVenue": "bybit",
  "topVenueSharePct": 64.7,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "bybit",
      "oiUsd": 658384012
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "oiUsd": 359523600
    }
  ]
}
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 6,
  "spreadBps": 12644.2,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "okx",
      "px": 86.83
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 78.5765
    },
    {
      "venue": "edgex",
      "px": 78.61500000581145
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 85.22
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.7327
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 78.57993328
    }
  ]
}
Cross Venue Liquidations
{
  "venues": 1,
  "confluence": false,
  "longUsd": 0,
  "shortUsd": 799,
  "totalUsd": 799,
  "windowMin": 30
}
Price78.62
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss77.23
Take profit81.10
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.76
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • Admin test publish path
  • Latest-asset replay supports the direction
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 13.5
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score52.90
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence50.90
Reasons
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 13.5
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 52.9.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-7.20
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.10
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$78.615
Funding rate
0.0049%
Open interest
$658.4M
Macro regime
balanced_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
balanced_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_TREND_REENTRY · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See SOL chart with overlay More thesesAll SOL theses