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Thesis · thesis_mrxs30su_8duxaf
APE

APE

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 1h ago · 2026-07-23T17:21:27Z · expires 2026-07-25

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
74/26
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.50%.

  • Max adverse excursion hit -0.82% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1506
Entry high
$0.1509
Target 1
$0.1517
Target 2
$0.1522
Stop loss
$0.1500
APE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.15340.14910.14480.14050.13610.15037/18 18:007/20 00:007/21 06:007/22 12:007/23 18:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
58.0
Bullish
ADX 14
18.8
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1500
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1500
2000.1500
TA Workspace · APE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

APE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.149480 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
133,333.3333 APE
$20.10K
Leverage
2.01x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.113250
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.93
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1517
+1.27R$126.67(+1.27%)
T2 hit @ 0.1522
+1.93R$193.33(+1.93%)
Stop hit @ 0.15
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open APE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 35.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (latest asset) scored 74.2, returned 93.83%, win rate 33.3%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 38.9.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is constructive, so the desk can be a little less conservative when the setup is aligned.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 18.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
APE Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. APE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
APE
Price0.15
Timestamp1784827260719
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 59.27,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.15,
    "middle": 0.15,
    "lower": 0.14,
    "width": 7.89
  },
  "sma20": 0.15,
  "sma50": 0.15,
  "sma200": 0.15,
  "ema12": 0.15,
  "ema26": 0.15,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 81.32,
    "d": 74.29
  },
  "adx14": 18.8,
  "obv": -1855307.6999999986
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1784827260715,
    "price": 0.15078,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.25,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 2.25
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 63.03,
        "d": 80.2
      },
      "adx14": 38.99,
      "obv": 451972.59999999986
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1784827260718,
    "price": 0.15082,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 84.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.14,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 20.7
      },
      "sma20": 0.12,
      "sma50": 0.12,
      "sma200": 0.13,
      "ema12": 0.13,
      "ema26": 0.12,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 65.51,
        "d": 41.71
      },
      "adx14": 19.21,
      "obv": -10017965.199999986
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1784827260719,
    "price": 0.15078,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.27,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 7.89
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 81.32,
        "d": 74.29
      },
      "adx14": 18.8,
      "obv": -1855307.6999999986
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1784827260719,
    "price": 0.15078,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.69,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.13,
        "width": 19.85
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.14,
      "sma200": 0.14,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 41.42,
        "d": 36
      },
      "adx14": 13.97,
      "obv": 227898390.89999995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1.6,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": -0.6,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": -0.6
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 1
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest902172.09
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 712.1,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.15081
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.1404
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.1508943
    }
  ]
}
Price0.15
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.15
Take profit0.15
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.52
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for APE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread22.75
Dominant Conviction73.75
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction73.75
Bear Conviction26.25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset. Cooldown remains active while the desk waits for a cleaner reset.
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • LONG desk bias has 91 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score38.90
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence44.20
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • LONG desk bias has 91 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 38.9.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-8.20
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset. Cooldown remains active while the desk waits for a cleaner reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score18.90
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1508
Funding rate
-0.0056%
Open interest
$0.9M
Macro regime
balanced_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See APE chart with overlay More thesesAll APE theses