Thesis · thesis_mrz9o2iz_8hpwri

VIRTUAL

longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 2h ago · 2026-07-24T18:21:29Z · expires 2026-07-26

Conviction

68/100

Bull / Bear

75/25

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.00%

peak -0.00% · MAE -0.00%

R:R

1.8:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.21%.

Closed -0.21% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.5898

Entry high

$0.5946

Target 1

$0.6058

Target 2

$0.6142

Stop loss

$0.5800

VIRTUAL · 1h candles · last 121

Entry / Target / Stop overlaid

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · golden cross

RSI 14

32.6

Bearish

ADX 14

23.5

Weak trend

ATR 14

0.0100

1.69% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.6700

Lower 0.5800

inside

SMA stack

200.6200

500.6300

2000.5800

PatternsGravestone Doji

TA Workspace · VIRTUAL

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

VIRTUAL · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.588360 · max 5x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 5x)

Trade plan

Position size

8,196.7213 VIRTUAL

$4.85K

Leverage

0.49x

≤ 5x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 1.80

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.6058

+1.11R$111.48(+1.11%)

T2 hit @ 0.6142

+1.80R$180.33(+1.80%)

Stop hit @ 0.58

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open VIRTUAL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
The model layer still leans bullish.
Candidate quality is 143.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
DONCHIAN BREAKOUT replay (latest asset) scored 35.7, returned 28.95%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Historical lane Swing Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is constructive, so the desk can be a little less conservative when the setup is aligned.

Bear case

ADX is only near 22.3, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
The stop band sits near $0.5800, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Regime fit is only partial.

Final thesis

VIRTUAL Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Regime fit is only partial. VIRTUAL cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

VIRTUAL

Price0.59

Timestamp1784917260972

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 33.93,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.67,
    "middle": 0.63,
    "lower": 0.58,
    "width": 14.77
  },
  "sma20": 0.63,
  "sma50": 0.63,
  "sma200": 0.58,
  "ema12": 0.61,
  "ema26": 0.62,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 10.68,
    "d": 6.97
  },
  "adx14": 22.3,
  "obv": 6265681.399999999
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1784917260970,
    "price": 0.5922,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.77,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.6,
        "middle": 0.59,
        "lower": 0.59,
        "width": 1.77
      },
      "sma20": 0.59,
      "sma50": 0.6,
      "sma200": 0.61,
      "ema12": 0.59,
      "ema26": 0.59,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.5,
        "d": 83.17
      },
      "adx14": 47.36,
      "obv": -1140354.9000000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1784917260971,
    "price": 0.59290753,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.59,
        "middle": 0.58,
        "lower": 0.56,
        "width": 4.98
      },
      "sma20": 0.58,
      "sma50": 0.58,
      "sma200": 0.63,
      "ema12": 0.58,
      "ema26": 0.58,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 51.96,
        "d": 52.3
      },
      "adx14": 15.8,
      "obv": -3522717.8999999994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1784917260972,
    "price": 0.5922,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 33.93,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.67,
        "middle": 0.63,
        "lower": 0.58,
        "width": 14.77
      },
      "sma20": 0.63,
      "sma50": 0.63,
      "sma200": 0.58,
      "ema12": 0.61,
      "ema26": 0.62,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 10.68,
        "d": 6.97
      },
      "adx14": 22.3,
      "obv": 6265681.399999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate-0.00

Cross Venue Funding

{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1.2,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": -0.2,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": -0.2
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": -0.1
    }
  ]
}

Open Interest6647477.27

Cross Venue Price

{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1710.2,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.6996
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.59216
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.59290753
    }
  ]
}

Price0.59

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %3.97

Leverage3

Stop loss0.58

Take profit0.61

Risk:Reward

1.8:1

Max drawdown %2.06

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for VIRTUAL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread14

Dominant Conviction75

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction75

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 32.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
FredAI promote state
Latest-asset replay supports the direction
FredAI memory supports a controlled probe
Strategy lab B is constructive
EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
replay remains supportive with score 35.7
LONG desk bias has 56 confidence
TA structure is not risk-ready yet

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score100

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence96.50

Reasons

EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
replay remains supportive with score 35.7
LONG desk bias has 56 confidence
TA structure is not risk-ready yet

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Live-learning brain

State

penalizing

Score-3.80

Note

Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.

Strategy commander brain

State

supported

Score66.60

Note

Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.

Strategy lab brain

State

constructive

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.5922

Funding rate

-0.0023%

Open interest

$6.6M

Macro regime

balanced_drift_bear_lowvol

Replay regime

balanced_drift_bear_lowvol

Replay strategy

DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT · latest_asset

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

supported

Strategy lab

constructive

Desk posture

provisional

Brain mode

fast

See VIRTUAL chart with overlay More theses All VIRTUAL theses