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Thesis · thesis_ms0c8sgv_u2jbor
PYTH

PYTH

 longOPEN 1-3d

Generated 55m ago · 2026-07-25T12:21:21Z · expires 2026-07-27

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/25
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
—
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Price levels
Entry low
$0.0430
Entry high
$0.0435
Target 1
$0.0469
Target 2
$0.0491
Stop loss
$0.0400
PYTH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.04960.04710.04460.04210.03950.04347/20 13:007/21 19:007/23 01:007/24 07:007/25 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
29.9
Oversold
ADX 14
22.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0500
Lower 0.0400
inside
SMA stack
200.0500
500.0500
2000.0400
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · PYTH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PYTH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.043345 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
30,769.2308 PYTH
$1.33K
Leverage
0.13x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0469
+1.12R$112.31(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.0491
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.04
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PYTH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 44.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 18.2, returned 12.24%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME TREND is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 78.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 22.7, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
PYTH Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. PYTH cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PYTH
Price0.04
Timestamp1784982060803
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 29.01,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.05,
    "middle": 0.05,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 14.17
  },
  "sma20": 0.05,
  "sma50": 0.05,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.04,
  "ema26": 0.05,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 5.81,
    "d": 4.16
  },
  "adx14": 22.7,
  "obv": 189458541
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami",
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1784982060800,
    "price": 0.043243,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 36.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 2.62
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 40.86,
        "d": 36.77
      },
      "adx14": 37.86,
      "obv": -5605852
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu",
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1784982060801,
    "price": 0.04324917,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 90.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 33.9
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 59.53,
        "d": 69.28
      },
      "adx14": 23.77,
      "obv": -1839981
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1784982060802,
    "price": 0.043243,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 29.01,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 14.17
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 5.81,
        "d": 4.16
      },
      "adx14": 22.7,
      "obv": 189458541
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1784982060803,
    "price": 0.043243,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 16.97
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.87,
        "d": 10.14
      },
      "adx14": 40.72,
      "obv": 287017767
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 0.9,
  "maxBps": 0.5,
  "minBps": -0.4,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": -0.4
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.5
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest1544567.92
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1255.2,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.04324965
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.043236
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.04890061
    }
  ]
}
Price0.04
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.04
Take profit0.05
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %7.50
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • RSI 29.0 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PYTH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread19.25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Latest-asset replay supports the direction
  • FredAI memory supports a controlled probe
  • VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.2
  • LONG desk bias has 77 confidence
  • TA structure is not risk-ready yet
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score78
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence73
Reasons
  • VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.2
  • LONG desk bias has 77 confidence
  • TA structure is not risk-ready yet
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 78.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-4.90
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score41
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0432
Funding rate
-0.0005%
Open interest
$1.5M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See PYTH chart with overlay More thesesAll PYTH theses