EGOLDSEGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_ms0mynqg_qb01p0
PYTH

PYTH

 longOPEN 1-3d

Generated 48m ago · 2026-07-25T17:21:24Z · expires 2026-07-27

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/25
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
—
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Price levels
Entry low
$0.0425
Entry high
$0.0431
Target 1
$0.0459
Target 2
$0.0479
Stop loss
$0.0400
PYTH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.04960.04710.04460.04210.03950.04297/20 17:007/21 23:007/23 05:007/24 11:007/25 17:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
29.2
Oversold
ADX 14
24.5
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0500
Lower 0.0400
inside
SMA stack
200.0500
500.0500
2000.0400
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · PYTH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PYTH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.042985 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
35,714.2857 PYTH
$1.53K
Leverage
0.15x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.82
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0459
+1.11R$110.71(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.0479
+1.82R$182.14(+1.82%)
Stop hit @ 0.04
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PYTH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 97.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 18.2, returned 12.24%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME TREND is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 24.5, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
PYTH Long: constructive command with guarded risk

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is still warming. PYTH cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PYTH
Price0.04
Timestamp1785000060813
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 27.85,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.05,
    "middle": 0.05,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 15.27
  },
  "sma20": 0.05,
  "sma50": 0.05,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.04,
  "ema26": 0.05,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 3.23,
    "d": 2.24
  },
  "adx14": 24.52,
  "obv": 192957499
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785000060807,
    "price": 0.042805,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.48,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 2.05
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 31.82,
        "d": 21.45
      },
      "adx14": 28.83,
      "obv": -5416938
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785000060808,
    "price": 0.042811,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 90.63,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 32.73
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 57.57,
        "d": 68.62
      },
      "adx14": 23.77,
      "obv": -1839981
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785000060809,
    "price": 0.042805,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 27.85,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 15.27
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 3.23,
        "d": 2.24
      },
      "adx14": 24.52,
      "obv": 192957499
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785000060813,
    "price": 0.042805,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.09,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 17.32
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 1.65,
        "d": 9.74
      },
      "adx14": 40.55,
      "obv": 286023389
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 0.3,
  "maxBps": 0.8,
  "minBps": 0.5,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 0.8
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.5
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest1518303.06
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1365.2,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.04278048
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.042811
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.04890061
    }
  ]
}
Price0.04
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
high
Max position %1.72
Leverage1
Stop loss0.04
Take profit0.05
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %6.55
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • RSI 27.9 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PYTH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread19.75
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: fred_promote at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.2
  • LONG desk bias has 79 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score85
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence77.60
Reasons
  • VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.2
  • LONG desk bias has 79 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.90
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score58.50
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0428
Funding rate
0.0010%
Open interest
$1.5M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See PYTH chart with overlay More thesesAll PYTH theses