Thesis · thesis_ms11yr3w_5m0ujk

PYTH

longWIN 1-3d

Generated 59m ago · 2026-07-26T00:21:23Z · expires 2026-07-27

Conviction

64/100

Bull / Bear

78/25

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

+0.09%

peak +0.14% · MAE +0.09%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +8.60%.

Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.0427

Entry high

$0.0433

Target 1

$0.0467

Target 2

$0.0490

Stop loss

$0.0400

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · golden cross

RSI 14

31.9

Bearish

ADX 14

27.5

Trending

ATR 14

0.000000

0.00% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.0500

Lower 0.0400

inside

SMA stack

200.0500

500.0500

2000.0400

PatternsBullish Harami

TA Workspace · PYTH

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PYTH · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.042913 · max 5x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 5x)

Trade plan

Position size

33,333.3333 PYTH

$1.43K

Leverage

0.14x

≤ 5x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 2.00

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.0467

+1.23R$123.33(+1.23%)

T2 hit @ 0.049

+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)

Stop hit @ 0.04

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open PYTH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
1d ADX confirms trend strength.
Candidate quality is 100.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 18.2, returned 12.24%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME TREND is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 72.0.

Bear case

ADX is near 27.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.0400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis

PYTH Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. PYTH cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

PYTH

Price0.04

Timestamp1785025261005

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 32.58,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.05,
    "middle": 0.05,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 15.87
  },
  "sma20": 0.05,
  "sma50": 0.05,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.04,
  "ema26": 0.05,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 10.94,
    "d": 6.7
  },
  "adx14": 27.51,
  "obv": 204541987
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 8.5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bear"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785025261002,
    "price": 0.042996,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 1.44
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 91.29,
        "d": 38.98
      },
      "adx14": 13.45,
      "obv": -4675050
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785025261003,
    "price": 0.043001,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 90.75,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 33.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.42,
        "d": 68.91
      },
      "adx14": 23.77,
      "obv": -1839981
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785025261004,
    "price": 0.042996,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 32.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 15.87
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 10.94,
        "d": 6.7
      },
      "adx14": 27.51,
      "obv": 204541987
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785025261005,
    "price": 0.042996,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.83,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 18.75
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 4.88,
        "d": 1.67
      },
      "adx14": 38.92,
      "obv": 292521973
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Cross Venue Funding

{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 0.5,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": 0.5,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.5
    }
  ]
}

Open Interest1514216.22

Cross Venue Price

{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1322.1,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.04295752
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.043001
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.04890061
    }
  ]
}

Price0.04

Risk officer memo

Approvedno

Risk rating

high

Max position %1

Leverage1

Stop loss0.04

Take profit0.05

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %6.97

Warnings

ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for PYTH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread22

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 32.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
FredAI promote state
Latest-asset replay supports the direction
FredAI memory supports a controlled probe
VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory
replay remains supportive with score 18.2
LONG desk bias has 88 confidence
setup remains in cooldown

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score72

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence69.10

Reasons

VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory
replay remains supportive with score 18.2
LONG desk bias has 88 confidence
setup remains in cooldown

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 72.0.

Live-learning brain

State

cooling

Score6.20

Note

Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score41

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

warming

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.043

Funding rate

0.0013%

Open interest

$1.5M

Macro regime

balanced_drift_bear_lowvol

Replay regime

balanced_drift_bear_lowvol

Replay strategy

VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

warming

Desk posture

provisional

Brain mode

fast

See PYTH chart with overlay More theses All PYTH theses