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Thesis · thesis_ms1eto24_lr4i6d
PYTH

PYTH

 longOPEN 1-3d

Generated 50m ago · 2026-07-26T06:21:21Z · expires 2026-07-28

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/25
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
—
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Price levels
Entry low
$0.0427
Entry high
$0.0432
Target 1
$0.0466
Target 2
$0.0489
Stop loss
$0.0400
PYTH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.04960.04710.04460.04210.03950.04317/21 07:007/22 13:007/23 19:007/25 01:007/26 07:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
33.4
Bearish
ADX 14
28.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0500
Lower 0.0400
inside
SMA stack
200.0400
500.0500
2000.0400
TA Workspace · PYTH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PYTH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.043098 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
33,898.3051 PYTH
$1.46K
Leverage
0.15x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.02
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0466
+1.24R$123.73(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.0489
+2.02R$201.69(+2.02%)
Stop hit @ 0.04
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PYTH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 114.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 18.2, returned 12.24%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME TREND is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 28.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
PYTH Long: constructive command with guarded risk

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is still warming. PYTH cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PYTH
Price0.04
Timestamp1785046860565
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 32.34,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.05,
    "middle": 0.04,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 15.16
  },
  "sma20": 0.04,
  "sma50": 0.05,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.04,
  "ema26": 0.05,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 10.26,
    "d": 6.48
  },
  "adx14": 28.49,
  "obv": 204232558
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 8.5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785046860560,
    "price": 0.042966,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 1.05
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.01,
        "d": 49.43
      },
      "adx14": 24.66,
      "obv": -3898744
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785046860564,
    "price": 0.04295424,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 90.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 33.12
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.21,
        "d": 68.84
      },
      "adx14": 23.77,
      "obv": -1839981
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785046860564,
    "price": 0.042966,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 32.34,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 15.16
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 10.26,
        "d": 6.48
      },
      "adx14": 28.49,
      "obv": 204232558
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1785046860565,
    "price": 0.042966,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 18.77
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 4.57,
        "d": 1.57
      },
      "adx14": 38.92,
      "obv": 294526205
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 0.5,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": 0.5,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.5
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest1585088.75
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1323.5,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.04295295
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.042966
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.04890061
    }
  ]
}
Price0.04
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.04
Take profit0.05
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %6.90
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PYTH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread21.25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Latest-asset replay supports the direction
  • FredAI memory supports a controlled probe
  • VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.2
  • LONG desk bias has 85 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score85
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence77.60
Reasons
  • VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.2
  • LONG desk bias has 85 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME_TREND is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score6.20
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score45
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.043
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$1.6M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See PYTH chart with overlay More thesesAll PYTH theses
PYTH LONG thesis · OPEN — EGOLDS · EGOLDS