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Thesis · thesis_ms43a1py_3vhb4q
APE

APE

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 1h ago · 2026-07-28T03:21:28Z · expires 2026-07-29

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
73/27
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE +0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +0.70%.

  • High conviction (68/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +0.90% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1502
Entry high
$0.1505
Target 1
$0.1510
Target 2
$0.1514
Stop loss
$0.1497
APE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.16420.15830.15250.14660.14070.15037/23 04:007/24 10:007/25 16:007/26 22:007/28 04:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · none
RSI 14
53.8
Neutral
ADX 14
21.3
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1600
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1500
2000.1500
TA Workspace · APE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

APE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.151550 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
153,846.1538 APE
$23.13K
Leverage
2.31x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.117850
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.62
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.151
+1.00R$100.00(+1.00%)
T2 hit @ 0.1514
+1.62R$161.54(+1.62%)
Stop hit @ 0.1497
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open APE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d structure leans constructive.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 37.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (latest asset) scored 74.2, returned 93.83%, win rate 33.3%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 48.9.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is constructive, so the desk can be a little less conservative when the setup is aligned.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 21.6, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1497, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
APE Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. APE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
APE
Price0.15
Timestamp1785208861294
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 54.42,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.16,
    "middle": 0.15,
    "lower": 0.14,
    "width": 12.75
  },
  "sma20": 0.15,
  "sma50": 0.15,
  "sma200": 0.15,
  "ema12": 0.15,
  "ema26": 0.15,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 39.26,
    "d": 44.38
  },
  "adx14": 21.61,
  "obv": 96803.90000000095
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1785208861292,
    "price": 0.15035,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.79,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 1.72
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 85.49
      },
      "adx14": 25.73,
      "obv": 1061238.4999999995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1785208861293,
    "price": 0.15038,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 84.67,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.14,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 20.4
      },
      "sma20": 0.12,
      "sma50": 0.12,
      "sma200": 0.13,
      "ema12": 0.13,
      "ema26": 0.12,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64.71,
        "d": 41.45
      },
      "adx14": 19.21,
      "obv": -10017965.199999986
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1785208861294,
    "price": 0.15035,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.42,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 12.75
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 39.26,
        "d": 44.38
      },
      "adx14": 21.61,
      "obv": 96803.90000000095
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1785208861294,
    "price": 0.15035,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.14,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 16.68
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.14,
      "sma200": 0.13,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 51.26,
        "d": 43.09
      },
      "adx14": 16.59,
      "obv": 240514030.59999996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1.6,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": -0.6,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": -0.6
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 1
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest968572.11
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 681.3,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.15042
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.1404
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.15037886
    }
  ]
}
Price0.15
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.15
Take profit0.15
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for APE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread22
Dominant Conviction73
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction73
Bear Conviction27
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • LONG desk bias has 88 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • trend remains constructive, but pullback risk is elevated
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score48.90
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence50.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • LONG desk bias has 88 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • trend remains constructive, but pullback risk is elevated
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 48.9.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-6.10
Note
Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score18.90
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1504
Funding rate
-0.0056%
Open interest
$1.0M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See APE chart with overlay More thesesAll APE theses