EGOLDSEGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_ms4ia52l_nfc8o7
SOL

SOL

 shortOPEN 1-3d

Generated 2h ago · 2026-07-28T10:21:26Z · expires 2026-07-30

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
25/76
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Price levels
Entry low
$72.984
Entry high
$73.566
Target 1
$71.6512
Target 2
$70.656
Stop loss
$74.73
SOL · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
78.1876.2174.2472.2770.373.427/23 06:007/24 12:007/25 18:007/27 00:007/28 06:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · lowSMA · none
RSI 14
34.3
Bearish
ADX 14
22.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.9900
1.36% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 77.10
Lower 72.61
inside
SMA stack
2074.86
5076.04
20076.46
TA Workspace · SOL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $73.2650 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
68.7285 SOL
$5.04K
Leverage
0.50x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 71.6512
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 70.656
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 74.73
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 22.5, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $74.7300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 6.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • RSI TREND REENTRY replay (latest asset) scored 13.5, returned 3.64%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI TREND REENTRY is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 51.9.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
SOL Short: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command is defensive. SOL cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SOL
Price73.27
Timestamp1785233927487
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 35.98,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.48,
    "signal": -0.27,
    "histogram": -0.21
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 77.07,
    "middle": 74.87,
    "lower": 72.68,
    "width": 5.87
  },
  "sma20": 74.87,
  "sma50": 76.05,
  "sma200": 76.46,
  "ema12": 74.58,
  "ema26": 75.06,
  "atr14": 0.97,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 10.57,
    "d": 10.06
  },
  "adx14": 22.54,
  "obv": 3813679.489999996
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "strong_bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1785233927483,
    "price": 73.27499999664724,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.08,
        "signal": -0.11,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 73.48,
        "middle": 73.3,
        "lower": 73.12,
        "width": 0.49
      },
      "sma20": 73.3,
      "sma50": 73.51,
      "sma200": 75.27,
      "ema12": 73.28,
      "ema26": 73.36,
      "atr14": 0.17,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 49.05,
        "d": 29.72
      },
      "adx14": 29.11,
      "obv": -143058.17999999985
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1785233927485,
    "price": 73.27499999664724,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 80.57,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.32,
        "signal": -0.19,
        "histogram": 0.51
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 69.66,
        "middle": 65.93,
        "lower": 62.21,
        "width": 11.31
      },
      "sma20": 65.93,
      "sma50": 66.3,
      "sma200": 68.68,
      "ema12": 66.46,
      "ema26": 66.15,
      "atr14": 2.25,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 50.56,
        "d": 51.26
      },
      "adx14": 25.29,
      "obv": -4838158.700000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1785233927486,
    "price": 73.27499999664724,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 35.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.48,
        "signal": -0.27,
        "histogram": -0.21
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 77.07,
        "middle": 74.87,
        "lower": 72.68,
        "width": 5.87
      },
      "sma20": 74.87,
      "sma50": 76.05,
      "sma200": 76.46,
      "ema12": 74.58,
      "ema26": 75.06,
      "atr14": 0.97,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 10.57,
        "d": 10.06
      },
      "adx14": 22.54,
      "obv": 3813679.489999996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1785233927487,
    "price": 73.27499999664724,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.37,
        "signal": 0.08,
        "histogram": -0.45
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 79.26,
        "middle": 76.21,
        "lower": 73.17,
        "width": 7.99
      },
      "sma20": 76.21,
      "sma50": 74.29,
      "sma200": 87.42,
      "ema12": 75.5,
      "ema26": 75.88,
      "atr14": 2.75,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 8,
        "d": 27.57
      },
      "adx14": 11.48,
      "obv": -69995196.05000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 7,
  "spreadBps": 1.8,
  "maxBps": 0.5,
  "minBps": -1.3,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "okx",
      "bps": 0.1
    },
    {
      "venue": "bybit",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": -0.9
    },
    {
      "venue": "edgex",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": -1.2
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": -1.3
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest658384012.13
Cross Venue O I
{
  "venues": 2,
  "totalUsd": 976947160,
  "topVenue": "bybit",
  "topVenueSharePct": 67.4,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "bybit",
      "oiUsd": 658384012
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "oiUsd": 318563148
    }
  ]
}
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 6,
  "spreadBps": 13158.7,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "okx",
      "px": 86.83
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 73.2525
    },
    {
      "venue": "edgex",
      "px": 73.29500000923872
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 85.22
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.7327
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 73.25
    }
  ]
}
Price73.27
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss74.73
Take profit70.66
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.99
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction76
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • Admin test publish path
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 13.5
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score51.90
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence50.20
Reasons
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 13.5
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 51.9.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.50
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score15.10
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$73.275
Funding rate
0.0049%
Open interest
$658.4M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_TREND_REENTRY · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See SOL chart with overlay More thesesAll SOL theses