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Thesis · thesis_ms4xa53f_skit99
BLUR

BLUR

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 2h ago · 2026-07-28T17:21:21Z · expires 2026-07-30

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
25/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.25%.

  • Closed -0.25% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0145
Entry high
$0.0147
Target 1
$0.0133
Target 2
$0.0125
Stop loss
$0.0157
BLUR · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.01610.01510.01420.01330.01230.01427/22 23:007/24 05:007/25 11:007/26 17:007/27 23:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · death crossMACD · bearish_cross
RSI 14
33.5
Bearish
ADX 14
17.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0200
Lower 0.0100
below lower
SMA stack
200.0100
500.0200
2000.0200
TA Workspace · BLUR
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

BLUR · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.014664 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
90,909.0909 BLUR
$1.33K
Leverage
0.13x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.91
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0133
+1.18R$118.18(+1.18%)
T2 hit @ 0.0125
+1.91R$190.91(+1.91%)
Stop hit @ 0.0157
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BLUR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 17.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0157, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h structure leans heavy.
  • 1h RSI is washed out inside a weak trend.
  • Candidate quality is 73.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 34.3, returned 41.68%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI TREND REENTRY is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 87.5.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
BLUR Short: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. BLUR cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
BLUR
Price0.01
Timestamp1785259260658
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 42.45,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.02,
    "middle": 0.01,
    "lower": 0.01,
    "width": 8.83
  },
  "sma20": 0.01,
  "sma50": 0.02,
  "sma200": 0.02,
  "ema12": 0.01,
  "ema26": 0.01,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 28.87,
    "d": 29.88
  },
  "adx14": 17.78,
  "obv": -20566206
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1785259260654,
    "price": 0.014579,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.01,
        "middle": 0.01,
        "lower": 0.01,
        "width": 2.38
      },
      "sma20": 0.01,
      "sma50": 0.01,
      "sma200": 0.01,
      "ema12": 0.01,
      "ema26": 0.01,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 55.49,
        "d": 70.05
      },
      "adx14": 16.85,
      "obv": 3872205
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Dragonfly Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1785259260655,
    "price": 0.0145645,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 13.41,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.02,
        "middle": 0.02,
        "lower": 0.02,
        "width": 15.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.02,
      "sma50": 0.02,
      "sma200": 0.02,
      "ema12": 0.02,
      "ema26": 0.02,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 9.1,
        "d": 39.32
      },
      "adx14": 16.39,
      "obv": 5967574
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1785259260657,
    "price": 0.014579,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.45,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.02,
        "middle": 0.01,
        "lower": 0.01,
        "width": 8.83
      },
      "sma20": 0.01,
      "sma50": 0.02,
      "sma200": 0.02,
      "ema12": 0.01,
      "ema26": 0.01,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 28.87,
        "d": 29.88
      },
      "adx14": 17.78,
      "obv": -20566206
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1785259260658,
    "price": 0.014579,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.02,
        "middle": 0.02,
        "lower": 0.01,
        "width": 28.2
      },
      "sma20": 0.02,
      "sma50": 0.02,
      "sma200": 0.02,
      "ema12": 0.02,
      "ema26": 0.02,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 13.7,
        "d": 14.38
      },
      "adx14": 27.33,
      "obv": 674720435
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1.9,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": -0.9,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.1
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": -0.9
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest852171.24
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 6799.3,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.01456469
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.02737506
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.014582
    }
  ]
}
Price0.01
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.02
Take profit0.01
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %8
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for BLUR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Admin test publish path
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is graded B in current memory
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • downside still works, but squeeze risk is elevated
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score87.50
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence80.70
Reasons
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is graded B in current memory
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • downside still works, but squeeze risk is elevated
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_TREND_REENTRY is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 87.5.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1.40
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score41.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0146
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$0.9M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See BLUR chart with overlay More thesesAll BLUR theses