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Thesis · thesis_mnroo9o0_6f6ank
SUI

SUI

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 54d ago · 2026-04-09T16:20:51Z · expires 2026-04-12

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
63/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.03% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.71%.

  • Closed -0.71% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.9318
Entry high
$0.9428
Target 1
$0.9678
Target 2
$0.9864
Stop loss
$0.9100
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
37.4
Bearish
ADX 14
39.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
3.62% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.9200
Lower 0.8000
inside
SMA stack
200.8600
500.9100
2001.03
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · SUI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SUI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.828330 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,663.0037 SUI
$3.43K
Leverage
0.34x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.9678
+1.12R$111.72(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.9864
+1.80R$179.85(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.91
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SUI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • RSI 62.2 is elevated; pullback risk, not a standalone short
  • Price above SMA20
  • SMA20 above SMA50
  • Candidate score 62.4 with promotion state watch.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (exact_regime) scored 14.5, returned 4.46%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 47.0.
Bear case
  • ADX 24.1 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.9100; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
SUI Long: directional case leads, counter-case remains tactical

SUI cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant. Policy support and deterministic risk levels keep the plan disciplined without stripping out the desk's bull-versus-bear framing.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SUI
Price0.94
Timestamp1775751615450
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 61.98,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.97,
    "middle": 0.91,
    "lower": 0.85,
    "width": 13.41
  },
  "sma20": 0.91,
  "sma50": 0.89,
  "sma200": 0.93,
  "ema12": 0.92,
  "ema26": 0.91,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 64.66,
    "d": 55.08
  },
  "adx14": 24.08,
  "obv": -849436.8043500071
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775751615447,
    "price": 0.9373,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 79.12,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.94,
        "middle": 0.92,
        "lower": 0.89,
        "width": 4.56
      },
      "sma20": 0.92,
      "sma50": 0.91,
      "sma200": 0.92,
      "ema12": 0.92,
      "ema26": 0.92,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 94.97,
        "d": 90.88
      },
      "adx14": 29.91,
      "obv": 2628615.29366
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775751615448,
    "price": 0.9373,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.93,
        "middle": 0.91,
        "lower": 0.9,
        "width": 3.7
      },
      "sma20": 0.91,
      "sma50": 0.92,
      "sma200": 0.89,
      "ema12": 0.92,
      "ema26": 0.92,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 94.97,
        "d": 87.84
      },
      "adx14": 22.78,
      "obv": 3004455.11863
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775751615449,
    "price": 0.9373,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.97,
        "middle": 0.91,
        "lower": 0.85,
        "width": 13.41
      },
      "sma20": 0.91,
      "sma50": 0.89,
      "sma200": 0.93,
      "ema12": 0.92,
      "ema26": 0.91,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64.66,
        "d": 55.08
      },
      "adx14": 24.08,
      "obv": -849436.8043500071
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1775751615450,
    "price": 0.9373,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.94,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.98,
        "middle": 0.9,
        "lower": 0.82,
        "width": 17.01
      },
      "sma20": 0.9,
      "sma50": 0.93,
      "sma200": 1.66,
      "ema12": 0.9,
      "ema26": 0.92,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 73.66,
        "d": 74.11
      },
      "adx14": 15.19,
      "obv": -232572337.35265973
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest62664006.95
Price0.94
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.54
Leverage2
Stop loss0.91
Take profit0.99
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.91
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SUI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread11.50
Dominant Conviction62.50
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction62.50
Bear Conviction37.50
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.5
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score47
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence50.60
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.5
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 47.0.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.9373
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$62.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
size_down
See SUI chart with overlay More thesesAll SUI theses