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Thesis · thesis_mnuf3lsk_oeqzyf
TIA

TIA

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 52d ago · 2026-04-11T14:16:09Z · expires 2026-04-13

Conviction
67/100
Bull / Bear
46/60
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.45%.

  • Closed -1.45% at conviction 67/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3029
Entry high
$0.3053
Target 1
$0.2968
Target 2
$0.2923
Stop loss
$0.3100
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · noneMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
45.7
Neutral
ADX 14
24.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0200
5.23% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4100
Lower 0.3600
inside
SMA stack
200.3900
500.4100
2000.4100
TA Workspace · TIA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

TIA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.382250 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
16,949.1525 TIA
$5.15K
Leverage
0.52x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2968
+1.24R$123.73(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.2923
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.31
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open TIA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX 25.5 means follow-through must be monitored; weak trend can chop the setup.
  • Stop invalidates at $0.3100; failure to move away from entry should be treated as warning.
  • This setup is running in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and the thesis should decay faster if momentum stalls.
Bear case
  • Price above SMA20
  • Price below SMA200
  • TA trend bullish
  • Candidate score 58.0 with promotion state cooldown.
  • RSI_PULLBACK replay (latest_asset) scored 15.9, returned 9.49%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 43.9.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Final thesis
TIA Short: provisional edge with controlled risk

TIA cleared the desk in provisional posture: the SHORT case leads on structure and replay support, but the desk still wants smaller size and faster decay if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
TIA
Price0.30
Timestamp1775916886159
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 53.56,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.31,
    "middle": 0.3,
    "lower": 0.29,
    "width": 5.9
  },
  "sma20": 0.3,
  "sma50": 0.3,
  "sma200": 0.32,
  "ema12": 0.3,
  "ema26": 0.3,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 54.32,
    "d": 66.04
  },
  "adx14": 25.54,
  "obv": 986807.3273299999
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1775916886157,
    "price": 0.30410595,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 41.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.31,
        "middle": 0.31,
        "lower": 0.3,
        "width": 2.05
      },
      "sma20": 0.31,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.3,
      "ema12": 0.3,
      "ema26": 0.31,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.61,
        "d": 34.1
      },
      "adx14": 17.54,
      "obv": 168109.28936999998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1775916886157,
    "price": 0.30410595,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.05,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.31,
        "middle": 0.31,
        "lower": 0.3,
        "width": 2.07
      },
      "sma20": 0.31,
      "sma50": 0.3,
      "sma200": 0.3,
      "ema12": 0.31,
      "ema26": 0.31,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 24.17,
        "d": 24.29
      },
      "adx14": 17.57,
      "obv": -605104.9539900005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1775916886159,
    "price": 0.30410595,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.31,
        "middle": 0.3,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 5.9
      },
      "sma20": 0.3,
      "sma50": 0.3,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.3,
      "ema26": 0.3,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 54.32,
        "d": 66.04
      },
      "adx14": 25.54,
      "obv": 986807.3273299999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1775916886159,
    "price": 0.30410595,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.33,
        "middle": 0.3,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 19.06
      },
      "sma20": 0.3,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.62,
      "ema12": 0.3,
      "ema26": 0.31,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 68.61,
        "d": 71.28
      },
      "adx14": 14.06,
      "obv": -25238317.434239995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1839464.54
Price0.30
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.31
Take profit0.29
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.94
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for TIA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread9
Dominant Conviction60
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction40
Bear Conviction60
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 36.
  • Latest-asset replay supports the direction
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.9
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score43.90
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence46.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.9
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 43.9.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3041
Funding rate
-0.0018%
Open interest
$1.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Desk posture
provisional
See TIA chart with overlay More thesesAll TIA theses