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Thesis · thesis_mo42742x_8jizh9
KAITO

KAITO

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-18T08:12:41Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.24%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -1.24% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4728
Entry high
$0.4742
Target 1
$0.4778
Target 2
$0.4805
Stop loss
$0.4700
KAITO · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.4850.47250.45990.44730.43470.4655/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · death cross
RSI 14
52.9
Neutral
ADX 14
15.5
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
2.15% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4700
Lower 0.4500
inside
SMA stack
200.4600
500.4700
2000.4800
TA Workspace · KAITO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

KAITO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.464660 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
28,571.4286 KAITO
$13.53K
Leverage
1.35x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.298500
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.4778
+1.23R$122.86(+1.23%)
T2 hit @ 0.4805
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.47
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open KAITO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 109.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 32.6, returned 24.83%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 99.7.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 37.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.4700, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
KAITO Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming. KAITO cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
KAITO
Price0.47
Timestamp1776499773165
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.33,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.51,
    "middle": 0.47,
    "lower": 0.43,
    "width": 16.38
  },
  "sma20": 0.47,
  "sma50": 0.43,
  "sma200": 0.41,
  "ema12": 0.48,
  "ema26": 0.46,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 46.12,
    "d": 50.69
  },
  "adx14": 37.24,
  "obv": 113218.12065
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776499773164,
    "price": 0.4735,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 22.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.49,
        "middle": 0.48,
        "lower": 0.47,
        "width": 3.15
      },
      "sma20": 0.48,
      "sma50": 0.49,
      "sma200": 0.48,
      "ema12": 0.48,
      "ema26": 0.48,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 6.29,
        "d": 2.1
      },
      "adx14": 31.94,
      "obv": 19758.37415
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776499773165,
    "price": 0.4735,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.5,
        "middle": 0.49,
        "lower": 0.47,
        "width": 6.37
      },
      "sma20": 0.49,
      "sma50": 0.48,
      "sma200": 0.43,
      "ema12": 0.48,
      "ema26": 0.48,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 1.9,
        "d": 0.63
      },
      "adx14": 28.75,
      "obv": 20940.392090000016
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776499773165,
    "price": 0.4735,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.51,
        "middle": 0.47,
        "lower": 0.43,
        "width": 16.38
      },
      "sma20": 0.47,
      "sma50": 0.43,
      "sma200": 0.41,
      "ema12": 0.48,
      "ema26": 0.46,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 46.12,
        "d": 50.69
      },
      "adx14": 37.24,
      "obv": 113218.12065
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776499773165,
    "price": 0.4735,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.64,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.48,
        "middle": 0.43,
        "lower": 0.37,
        "width": 25.5
      },
      "sma20": 0.43,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.61,
      "ema12": 0.44,
      "ema26": 0.42,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 74,
        "d": 82.13
      },
      "adx14": 39.34,
      "obv": 277708.1321299999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2242566.69
Price0.47
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.47
Take profit0.48
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.74
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for KAITO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 32.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score99.70
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.60
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 32.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 99.7.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-6.40
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score45.50
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.4735
Funding rate
0.0010%
Open interest
$2.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See KAITO chart with overlay More thesesAll KAITO theses