Thesis · thesis_mo49buhe_2t7mve

GRASS

longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 46d ago · 2026-04-18T11:32:15Z · expires 2026-04-21

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.02%

peak -0.00% · MAE -0.02%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.56%.

Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
Max adverse excursion hit -1.56% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.3536

Entry high

$0.3555

Target 1

$0.3602

Target 2

$0.3637

Stop loss

$0.3500

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden crossMACD · bullish_cross

RSI 14

57.5

Bullish

ADX 14

25.8

Trending

ATR 14

0.0300

5.92% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.5100

Lower 0.4400

inside

SMA stack

200.4800

500.4900

2000.4000

TA Workspace · GRASS

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.509580 · max 3x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 3x)

Trade plan

Position size

21,978.022 GRASS

$7.79K

Leverage

0.78x

≤ 3x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 2.01

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.3602

+1.24R$124.18(+1.24%)

T2 hit @ 0.3637

+2.01R$201.10(+2.01%)

Stop hit @ 0.35

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1d ADX confirms trend strength.
1h structure leans constructive.
Candidate quality is 75.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 22.6, returned 15.44%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 88.5.

Bear case

ADX is near 27.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.3500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis

GRASS Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. GRASS cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

GRASS

Price0.35

Timestamp1776511785198

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 48.16,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.39,
    "middle": 0.36,
    "lower": 0.33,
    "width": 16.27
  },
  "sma20": 0.36,
  "sma50": 0.35,
  "sma200": 0.33,
  "ema12": 0.37,
  "ema26": 0.36,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 25.03,
    "d": 56.21
  },
  "adx14": 27.21,
  "obv": -405210.2818000002
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776511785197,
    "price": 0.35456167,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 30.52,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.37,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 9.12
      },
      "sma20": 0.37,
      "sma50": 0.37,
      "sma200": 0.37,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.37,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 12.99,
        "d": 12.77
      },
      "adx14": 34.88,
      "obv": -41814.35124999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776511785197,
    "price": 0.35456167,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.37,
        "lower": 0.36,
        "width": 8.81
      },
      "sma20": 0.37,
      "sma50": 0.37,
      "sma200": 0.35,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.37,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 10.65,
        "d": 14.2
      },
      "adx14": 17.27,
      "obv": -39152.82328
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776511785198,
    "price": 0.35456167,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.33,
        "width": 16.27
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 25.03,
        "d": 56.21
      },
      "adx14": 27.21,
      "obv": -405210.2818000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776511785198,
    "price": 0.35456167,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 40.07
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.75,
        "d": 81.16
      },
      "adx14": 28.55,
      "obv": -5628.237400000391
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest1512641.06

Price0.35

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %4

Leverage3

Stop loss0.35

Take profit0.36

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %1.29

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is high at 34.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 22.6

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score88.50

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence80.60

Reasons

RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is high at 34.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 22.6

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 88.5.

Live-learning brain

State

penalizing

Score-6.80

Note

Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score28.70

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

warming

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.3546

Funding rate

0.0013%

Open interest

$1.5M

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

warming

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See GRASS chart with overlay More theses All GRASS theses