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Thesis · thesis_mo9196da_orf8mh
BLUR

BLUR

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-21T19:45:41Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +1.08%.

  • Closed +1.08% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0306
Entry high
$0.0310
Target 1
$0.0318
Target 2
$0.0324
Stop loss
$0.0300
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
41.8
Bearish
ADX 14
19.4
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0200
Lower 0.0200
inside
SMA stack
200.0200
500.0200
2000.0200
TA Workspace · BLUR
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

BLUR · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.020015 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
125,000 BLUR
$3.85K
Leverage
0.38x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0318
+1.25R$125.00(+1.25%)
T2 hit @ 0.0324
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.03
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BLUR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 117.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 34.3, returned 41.68%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI TREND REENTRY is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 84.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 68.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
BLUR Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. BLUR cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
BLUR
Price0.03
Timestamp1776800546232
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 53.31,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.04,
    "middle": 0.03,
    "lower": 0.03,
    "width": 35.24
  },
  "sma20": 0.03,
  "sma50": 0.03,
  "sma200": 0.02,
  "ema12": 0.03,
  "ema26": 0.03,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 10.22,
    "d": 21.85
  },
  "adx14": 68.85,
  "obv": 39981688.18274
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1776800546230,
    "price": 0.03081,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 30.86,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.03,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 2.59
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 5.86,
        "d": 9.18
      },
      "adx14": 22.62,
      "obv": -2363032.6680400004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 9,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1776800546231,
    "price": 0.03081,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.68,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 17.42
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.27,
        "d": 5.16
      },
      "adx14": 22.56,
      "obv": 8832200.424459996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1776800546231,
    "price": 0.03081,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.31,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 35.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.02,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 10.22,
        "d": 21.85
      },
      "adx14": 68.85,
      "obv": 39981688.18274
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1776800546232,
    "price": 0.03081,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.46,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.03,
        "middle": 0.02,
        "lower": 0.01,
        "width": 79.41
      },
      "sma20": 0.02,
      "sma50": 0.02,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.02,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 57.65,
        "d": 66.82
      },
      "adx14": 57.85,
      "obv": 56881823.39823
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1936723.38
Price0.03
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.69
Leverage2
Stop loss0.03
Take profit0.03
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.63
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for BLUR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score84.30
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence78.60
Reasons
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_TREND_REENTRY is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 84.3.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score41.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0308
Funding rate
-0.0041%
Open interest
$1.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_normalvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See BLUR chart with overlay More thesesAll BLUR theses