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Thesis · thesis_mocuv2fg_y8on1p
GRASS

GRASS

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 40d ago · 2026-04-24T11:57:00Z · expires 2026-04-26

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.05%
peak +0.06% · MAE -0.09%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -4.85%.

  • Was up +5.85% before reversing into a loss — the winner was there but never locked in. Strongest case for a breakeven/trailing stop.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -8.65% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4179
Entry high
$0.4229
Target 1
$0.4457
Target 2
$0.4612
Stop loss
$0.4000
GRASS · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.54560.50750.46940.43120.39310.50915/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
57.9
Bullish
ADX 14
25.8
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
5.89% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.5100
Lower 0.4400
inside
SMA stack
200.4800
500.4900
2000.4000
TA Workspace · GRASS
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.504640 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
4,901.9608 GRASS
$2.06K
Leverage
0.21x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.4457
+1.24R$124.02(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.4612
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.4
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 127.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 23.0, returned 15.44%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 77.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 41.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.4000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
GRASS Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. GRASS cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
GRASS
Price0.42
Timestamp1777031817358
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 57.12,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.47,
    "middle": 0.4,
    "lower": 0.34,
    "width": 32.11
  },
  "sma20": 0.4,
  "sma50": 0.37,
  "sma200": 0.33,
  "ema12": 0.42,
  "ema26": 0.4,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 35.86,
    "d": 61.52
  },
  "adx14": 41.19,
  "obv": -148166.27672000005
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1777031817354,
    "price": 0.4204,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 34.51,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.44,
        "middle": 0.43,
        "lower": 0.42,
        "width": 3.72
      },
      "sma20": 0.43,
      "sma50": 0.44,
      "sma200": 0.42,
      "ema12": 0.43,
      "ema26": 0.43,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 5.53,
        "d": 10.98
      },
      "adx14": 27.96,
      "obv": 187806.10552999994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 9.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1777031817356,
    "price": 0.4204,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.85,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.47,
        "middle": 0.43,
        "lower": 0.4,
        "width": 17.16
      },
      "sma20": 0.43,
      "sma50": 0.42,
      "sma200": 0.37,
      "ema12": 0.43,
      "ema26": 0.43,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.2,
        "d": 17.05
      },
      "adx14": 21.94,
      "obv": -57217.190089999945
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1777031817357,
    "price": 0.4204,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.12,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.47,
        "middle": 0.4,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 32.11
      },
      "sma20": 0.4,
      "sma50": 0.37,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.42,
      "ema26": 0.4,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 35.86,
        "d": 61.52
      },
      "adx14": 41.19,
      "obv": -148166.27672000005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1777031817358,
    "price": 0.4204,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.43,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 46.99
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.38,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.04,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.43,
        "d": 87.33
      },
      "adx14": 29.47,
      "obv": 597864.2716299997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2311078.23
Price0.42
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.57
Leverage2
Stop loss0.40
Take profit0.46
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.85
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score77.90
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence70.20
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 77.9.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score5.40
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score46.50
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.4204
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$2.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See GRASS chart with overlay More thesesAll GRASS theses