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Thesis · thesis_mpyljzqy_701zzo
FARTCOIN

FARTCOIN

 shortWIN 1-3d

Generated 45d ago · 2026-06-03T21:47:06Z · expires 2026-06-06

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
25/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.07%
peak +0.08% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +7.15%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +7.65% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1440
Entry high
$0.1457
Target 1
$0.1384
Target 2
$0.1345
Stop loss
$0.1500
FARTCOIN · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.15920.15080.14240.1340.12560.13367/14 08:007/15 14:007/16 20:007/18 02:007/19 08:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
42.9
Bearish
ADX 14
18.2
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1400
Lower 0.1300
inside
SMA stack
200.1400
500.1400
2000.1400
PatternsBullish Marubozu
TA Workspace · FARTCOIN
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

FARTCOIN · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.133600 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
19,417.4757 FARTCOIN
$2.81K
Leverage
0.28x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.01
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1384
+1.25R$125.24(+1.25%)
T2 hit @ 0.1345
+2.01R$200.97(+2.01%)
Stop hit @ 0.15
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open FARTCOIN on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 44.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Bear case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 85.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (latest asset) scored 18.8, returned 23.36%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. MACD MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 58.3.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
FARTCOIN Short: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. FARTCOIN cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
FARTCOIN
Price0.14
Timestamp1780523175193
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 42.54,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": -0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.16,
    "middle": 0.15,
    "lower": 0.14,
    "width": 17.68
  },
  "sma20": 0.15,
  "sma50": 0.16,
  "sma200": 0.2,
  "ema12": 0.15,
  "ema26": 0.15,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 58.2,
    "d": 55.05
  },
  "adx14": 44.18,
  "obv": -354049510.4000001
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1780523175190,
    "price": 0.14484,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.96,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.14,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 4.04
      },
      "sma20": 0.14,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.14,
      "ema26": 0.14,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 74.79,
        "d": 62.84
      },
      "adx14": 18.12,
      "obv": -28165698.799999982
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1780523175192,
    "price": 0.14484,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.78,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.14,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 7.64
      },
      "sma20": 0.14,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.16,
      "ema12": 0.14,
      "ema26": 0.14,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 57.79,
        "d": 28.94
      },
      "adx14": 32.29,
      "obv": -130866187.70000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1780523175193,
    "price": 0.14484,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 17.68
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.16,
      "sma200": 0.2,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.2,
        "d": 55.05
      },
      "adx14": 44.18,
      "obv": -354049510.4000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1780523175193,
    "price": 0.14484,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 33.07,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.02,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.21,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 39.88
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.24,
      "ema12": 0.16,
      "ema26": 0.18,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 19.45,
        "d": 12.36
      },
      "adx14": 33.66,
      "obv": 54164458.79999961
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 0.5,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": 0.5,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest20759189.42
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 3542.3,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.20292024
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.14497794
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.14475
    }
  ]
}
Price0.14
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.22
Leverage2
Stop loss0.15
Take profit0.13
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.56
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for FARTCOIN; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked FARTCOIN mostly because: FredAI memory grade C is still warming (MACD_MOMENTUM, confidence 47.3).
  • Admin test publish path
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.8
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score58.30
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence54.40
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.8
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 58.3.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked FARTCOIN mostly because: FredAI memory grade C is still warming (MACD_MOMENTUM, confidence 47.3).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score26.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1448
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$20.8M
Macro regime
balanced_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See FARTCOIN chart with overlay More thesesAll FARTCOIN theses