Bonn: Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Market is essentially certain on No. Yes is lottery-ticket cheap — only buy if you have specific tail-risk thesis.
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This market refers to the tennis match between Max Houkes and Roberto Carballes Baena in the Bonn, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Max Houkes' if Max Houkes advances against Roberto Carballes Baena. This market will resolve to 'Roberto Carballes Baena' if Roberto Carballes Baena advances against Max Houkes. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Outcome price between $0.00 and $1.00 is the market's implied probability for that outcome. A "Yes" at $0.65 means traders collectively think there's a 65% chance the answer ends up Yes. If you disagree by 10+ percentage points, you have a tradable edge — but liquidity may be thin on long-tail markets. Trade on Polymarket .