Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Market is essentially certain on No. Yes is lottery-ticket cheap — only buy if you have specific tail-risk thesis.
Every dot is a real Polymarket trade for this market. Y-axis is the agreed YES probability at that print (price × 100). VWAP weighs each print by its size — a more honest "crowd consensus" than the simple mean when one whale dominates flow.
| Trader | Side | Outcome | Size × Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private-Aftershave-Hovercraft | SELL | No | 31 × 99.9% | $31 | 4m ago |
| Aged-Assistance | BUY | No | 235 × 99.9% | $235 | 4m ago |
| Silky-Health | SELL | No | 20 × 99.9% | $20 | 4m ago |
| Delightful-Boysenberry-Cabana | SELL | No | 19 × 99.9% | $19 | 4m ago |
| Well-Made-Dispute | BUY | No | 2 × 99.9% | $2 | 4m ago |
| Foolish-Alder | BUY | Yes | 3657 × 0.1% | $5 | 4m ago |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?100.0%$2.69M
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?26.9%$2.38M
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?73.5%$2.36M
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?0.1%$2.10M
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?0.5%$1.63M
Outcome price between $0.00 and $1.00 is the market's implied probability for that outcome. A "Yes" at $0.65 means traders collectively think there's a 65% chance the answer ends up Yes. If you disagree by 10+ percentage points, you have a tradable edge — but liquidity may be thin on long-tail markets. Trade on Polymarket .