MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Market is essentially certain on No. Yes is lottery-ticket cheap — only buy if you have specific tail-risk thesis.
Every dot is a real Polymarket trade for this market. Y-axis is the agreed YES probability at that print (price × 100). VWAP weighs each print by its size — a more honest "crowd consensus" than the simple mean when one whale dominates flow.
| Trader | Side | Outcome | Size × Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL | Yes | 48 × 0.3% | $0 | 4h ago | |
| Glossy-Pocketwatch | BUY | Yes | 1203 × 0.4% | $5 | 4h ago |
| Positive-Earthworm | SELL | Yes | 28183 × 0.3% | $85 | 4h ago |
| Periodic-Fill | BUY | Yes | 500 × 0.4% | $2 | 4h ago |
| Ashamed-Mutt | SELL | Yes | 95137 × 0.3% | $285 | 4h ago |
| Gentle-Pollution | BUY | Yes | 250 × 0.4% | $1 | 4h ago |
| SELL | Yes | 15 × 0.3% | $0 | 4h ago | |
| Disgusting-Causal | BUY | Yes | 5548 × 0.4% | $22 | 4h ago |
| SELL | Yes | 53 × 0.3% | $0 | 4h ago | |
| Immediate-Academics | BUY | Yes | 19922 × 0.4% | $80 | 4h ago |
| Similar-Bakeware | BUY | Yes | 5000 × 0.4% | $20 | 4h ago |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome price between $0.00 and $1.00 is the market's implied probability for that outcome. A "Yes" at $0.65 means traders collectively think there's a 65% chance the answer ends up Yes. If you disagree by 10+ percentage points, you have a tradable edge — but liquidity may be thin on long-tail markets. Trade on Polymarket .