Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Market is essentially certain on No. Yes is lottery-ticket cheap — only buy if you have specific tail-risk thesis.
Every dot is a real Polymarket trade for this market. Y-axis is the agreed YES probability at that print (price × 100). VWAP weighs each print by its size — a more honest "crowd consensus" than the simple mean when one whale dominates flow.
| Trader | Side | Outcome | Size × Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bossy-Tonight | SELL | Yes | 5100 × 0.2% | $10 | 14m ago |
| BUY | No | 5100 × 99.8% | $5.1K | 14m ago | |
| Bossy-Tonight | SELL | Yes | 5100 × 0.2% | $10 | 14m ago |
| BUY | No | 5100 × 99.8% | $5.1K | 15m ago |
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome price between $0.00 and $1.00 is the market's implied probability for that outcome. A "Yes" at $0.65 means traders collectively think there's a 65% chance the answer ends up Yes. If you disagree by 10+ percentage points, you have a tradable edge — but liquidity may be thin on long-tail markets. Trade on Polymarket .