Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Market leans No. Yes side is cheap convexity if you see a tail-risk catalyst.
Not enough recent trade prints in the buffer (0) to plot a path. The trade buffer (1.5k cross-market) refreshes every minute; come back when more flow has landed in this market, or check the "Recent trades" table below for individual prints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Outcome price between $0.00 and $1.00 is the market's implied probability for that outcome. A "Yes" at $0.65 means traders collectively think there's a 65% chance the answer ends up Yes. If you disagree by 10+ percentage points, you have a tradable edge — but liquidity may be thin on long-tail markets. Trade on Polymarket .