Bonn: Guy Den Ouden vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
Market roughly balanced. Highest potential edge zone — any directional information moves price meaningfully.
Every dot is a real Polymarket trade for this market. Y-axis is the agreed YES probability at that print (price × 100). VWAP weighs each print by its size — a more honest "crowd consensus" than the simple mean when one whale dominates flow.
| Trader | Side | Outcome | Size × Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Handsome-Seafood-Speculation | BUY | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida | 43 × 63.0% | $27 | 3m ago |
| Cumbersome-Dock-Shield | SELL | Guy Den Ouden | 5 × 37.0% | $2 | 3m ago |
| Cumbersome-Dock-Shield | BUY | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida | 300 × 63.0% | $189 | 3m ago |
| Circular-Frustration | SELL | Under | 6 × 99.9% | $6 | 3m ago |
| Circular-Frustration | SELL | Under | 6 × 99.9% | $6 | 3m ago |
This market refers to the tennis match between Guy Den Ouden and Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida in the Bonn, originally scheduled for July 28, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Guy Den Ouden' if Guy Den Ouden advances against Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida. This market will resolve to 'Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida' if Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida advances against Guy Den Ouden. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Outcome price between $0.00 and $1.00 is the market's implied probability for that outcome. A "Yes" at $0.65 means traders collectively think there's a 65% chance the answer ends up Yes. If you disagree by 10+ percentage points, you have a tradable edge — but liquidity may be thin on long-tail markets. Trade on Polymarket .