Will France win on 2026-07-18?
Market roughly balanced. Highest potential edge zone — any directional information moves price meaningfully.
Every dot is a real Polymarket trade for this market. Y-axis is the agreed YES probability at that print (price × 100). VWAP weighs each print by its size — a more honest "crowd consensus" than the simple mean when one whale dominates flow.
| Trader | Side | Outcome | Size × Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excellent-Zero | BUY | Yes | 6 × 52.0% | $3 | 5m ago |
| Regal-Petition | SELL | Yes | 47 × 51.0% | $24 | 1m ago |
| Foolish-Mango | BUY | No | 75 × 49.0% | $37 | 1m ago |
| All-Peasant-Drug | BUY | Yes | 92 × 52.0% | $48 | 1m ago |
| Generous-Baby | BUY | Yes | 10 × 52.0% | $5 | 1m ago |
In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 18, 2026 If France wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Outcome price between $0.00 and $1.00 is the market's implied probability for that outcome. A "Yes" at $0.65 means traders collectively think there's a 65% chance the answer ends up Yes. If you disagree by 10+ percentage points, you have a tradable edge — but liquidity may be thin on long-tail markets. Trade on Polymarket .