Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Market is essentially certain on No. Yes is lottery-ticket cheap — only buy if you have specific tail-risk thesis.
Every dot is a real Polymarket trade for this market. Y-axis is the agreed YES probability at that print (price × 100). VWAP weighs each print by its size — a more honest "crowd consensus" than the simple mean when one whale dominates flow.
| Trader | Side | Outcome | Size × Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coordinated-Try | BUY | Yes | 8 × 13.0% | $1 | 4m ago |
| Tart-Detail | BUY | Yes | 8 × 13.0% | $1 | 4m ago |
| Intentional-Convention | BUY | Yes | 8 × 13.0% | $1 | 9m ago |
| BUY | No | 20 × 88.0% | $18 | 9m ago |
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Outcome price between $0.00 and $1.00 is the market's implied probability for that outcome. A "Yes" at $0.65 means traders collectively think there's a 65% chance the answer ends up Yes. If you disagree by 10+ percentage points, you have a tradable edge — but liquidity may be thin on long-tail markets. Trade on Polymarket .